Something is Brewing Near Florida
On Tuesday morning, the NHC has increased the probability of tropical cyclone formation to 70% over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
Video: Tropical Update
It is here where an area of low pressure has developed and is beginning to take on tropical or subtropical characteristics.
In any case, tropical storm watches and/or warnings may be posted for the north-central Gulf coast later on Tuesday.
Currently, there is a quite a lot of instability surrounding Florida associated with this broad low pressure area.
Showers and thunderstorms pulsed up and down across central and south Florida on Monday and will continue to do so on Tuesday.
This area of low pressure, like Tropical Depression 2, Bonnie and Colin, is dealing with an unfavorable atmosphere. An upper-level low is inhibiting its development, creating a medium-shear environment. This shear aids in blowing thunderstorms away from the developing surface circulation.
A healthy tropical cyclone requires thunderstorms bursting with activity over the low-level spin. Without the t-storms, cyclone organization will remain limited.
All that being said, the forecast calls for a weakening shear environment.
After Florida, computer models are showing a tropical cyclone organize and slide north and west toward the north-central Gulf Coast near Louisiana by later this week.
The question of course is, if it does get its act together will it have enough time to intensify into a tropical storm? Right now, several models are saying yes it will.
Air Force Reconnaissance will fly into the suspect area on Tuesday to see what exactly is going on and determine if development and organization is occurring.
Stay tuned to weather.com and The Weather Channel for continuing coverage of the 2010 hurricane season. We are Your Hurricane Authority!?